The sky isn’t falling and it isn’t the end of the world. In fact there have been quite a few positive reports about home prices recently…
I must admit that I tweet (share on twitter) lots of real estate or economic news that can be somewhat negative. And I also write the unfiltered truth in my blog posts.
Which might cause some people to have a negative outlook for home prices.
But you might want to…
Ignore the Negative Feelings About House Prices
Recently several major indicators of home price trends showed us why we should be more upbeat about home prices. I have covered most of these in recent posts but I think this trend needs to be pointed out.
Case Shiller on Home Prices
The S&P Case Shiller 10 and 20 city indices reported that of 20 cities tracked, home prices were lower in December 2013 than for November 2013 . Case Shiller’s seasonally adjusted month-to month reading showed that home prices rose by 0.8% as compared to 0.9% in November.
However, December home prices posted a year-over-year gain of 13.40%.
This is the highest year-over-year increase in home prices since 2005
Year over year is a better indicator if you are looking at the big picture in my opinion…
FHFA on House Prices
FHFA has also recently released data on home prices that should help to fight off any negativity. They said that home prices were higher for the 10th consecutive quarter. In other words, home prices have been rising for quite some time.
The FHFA reported that home prices rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.80% in December as compared to November’s reading. They also said that home prices were 7.7% higher for the fourth quarter of 2013 than for the same period in 2012.
Adjusted for inflation, this is approximately a 7% year-over-year increase
CoreLogic on Home Prices
Once we add the latest news from CoreLogic to the mix, it is a triple whammy of positive news about house prices. Corelogic’s report is a 3 month weighted average and NOT seasonally adjusted. So what did they say?
- Home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 12% in January 2014 compared to December 2013
- January marks the 23nd consecutive month of year-over-year home price gains
- House price, excluding distressed sales, increased by 9.8% year over year in January 2014 compared to December 2013
According to Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s Chief Economist, the last time that January month-over-month and year-over-year home prices increased this much was way back in 2006.
Upstate South Carolina Home Prices
While looking at these reports about US home prices gives you a better idea of the BIG picture, we can even look at more local data to see things are OK. Consider just these 2 tidbits from the January 2014 Upstate SC Real Estate Market Report:
- January 2014 Median Home Price UP 11% Compared to January 2013
- January 2014 Average Home Price UP 16% Compared to January 2013
Now that is for all the areas of the MLS so it is still not going to tell you everything you need to know about 1 specific home. But it is still very good news.
The Take Away
As you can see, there is good reason to be positive about the real estate market. There is no doubt that home prices will face some challenges in the coming year. Slow job growth and the still weak economy does mean we may see slower gains in home prices.
I should NOT have to remind you that some of the new mortgage rules and strict mortgage lending standards may also slow the increases in house prices.
Yes the rate of home price increases has slowed down. But house prices are still increasing!
The truth is there is plenty to be positive about when it comes to home prices.
Just always remember these tips:
- Think long term when buying real estate
- Home prices can go up or down as recent history has shown us.
- You make your money in real estate when you BUY not when you sell