View South Carolina Real Estate

  • Topics
    • Real Estate News
    • Market Reports
    • Selling
    • Buying
    • Around the Home
    • One Mans Struggles
  • SEARCH ALL LISTINGS
    • BASIC SEARCH
    • ADVANCED SEARCH
    • ADDRESS SEARCH
    • MLS NUMBER SEARCH
    • MAP SEARCH
  • About / Contact
    • About Mark Brian
    • Contact

You are here: Home / News / Looking Forward Looking Back 2-3-2014

Looking Forward Looking Back 2-3-2014

Recapping the big news for real estate, housing & the economy from last week, today’s news and what to keep an eye for the week of 2-3-2014…

 

Lots of news for housing and the economy so let’s dive right in!

 

 

New Home Sales

 

I kicked off last week’s Looking Forward Looking Back post with the BIG news about new home sales. To recap, New Home Sales were down 7% from the November 2013 level but are up 4.5% from the December 2012 level.

 

This was the highest reading since 2008!

 

The inventory of available new homes rose to a 5 month supply in December 2013. Once again we heard the lame excuse that cold weather was the cause of lower new home sales. Economists are concerned that rising mortgage rates, new mortgage rules and high unemployment could lead to slower home sales in 2014.

 

The median price of a new home rose by 0.60% in December 2013 ($270,299).

 

The national median home price was for all of 2013 was up 8.40% YOY.

 

This is the highest annual growth rate for median home prices since 2005.

Pending Home Sales

 

We also got more bad news last week regarding NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index. In case you missed my post last week, let me recap:

 

  • The December 2013 Pending Home Sales Index fell 8.7% from the November 2013 level
  • The December 2013 Pending Home Sales Index is 8.8% lower than the December 2012 level
  • This is the lowest level since October 2011

 

Does not sound good. And like I said, the excuse that the weather caused the dip in Pending Home Sales is lame. Lame and weak.

 

 

Good News for Home Prices

 

Not all of the news last week was bad. We did get good news from Case-Shiller:

 

  • The 10-City Composite increased 13.8% year-over-year
  • The 20-City Composite increased 13.7% year-over-year

 

Please remember this is talking about home prices for the entire US. Always rely upon someone with expertise in your local market

 

 

Fed Cuts Back on Quantitative Easing

 

Not a big surprise that the Fed is once again cutting back on their monthly asset purchases made under its quantitative easing program. Monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities will be reduced from January’s level of $75 billion to $65 billion in February.

 

The Other Big News from the Fed

 

Well it is official. Yellen is now Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bernanke is headed to the Brookings Institute. Yellen has her work cut out for her as the Fed has to start winding down QE without totally destroying the economy. Or hurting what little progress has been made on helping the economy recover.

 

And Yellen is going to have to deal with the idiots in Congress. And do both of these without freaking Wall Street out. Should be interesting to watch.

 

 

Mortgage Rates

 

As usual, I shared the latest average mortgage rates on Friday. I also included some info from FHFA but it is a little more dated than the info from Freddie, the MBA and Bankrate.com. Despite the Fed cutting back even more on QE, mortgage rates dipped slightly.

 

 

Employment / Unemployment

We found out some more good news from the BLS last week as unemployment improved in 39 states.

 

 

Confidence

 

Last week we found out that both the Thompson Reuter/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Gallup’s latest Economic Confidence polls fell.

 

Which sounds bad. But today we found out that home builders are feeling more confident:

 

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for the fourth quarter of 2013 is up sharply, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. All segments of the market—single-family homes, condominiums and multifamily rental—registered strong increases compared to the same quarter a year ago. The single-family index increased 20 points to a level of 48, which is the highest fourth-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008 and the ninth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.

 

I hope the home builders are correct in feeling more confident. The economy gets such a big boost from a healthy housing market. While new homes are only a portion of the real estate market, they do make a difference.

 

 

Construction Spending Increases

 

Maybe the healthy confidence that the home builders are feeling is due to today’s news from the Census Bureau:

 

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2013 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $930.5 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised November estimate of $929.9 billion. The December figure is 5.3 percent above the December 2012 estimate of $883.6 billion.

 

Check out the chart showing residential construction spending (red line is Not Seasonally Adjusted):

residential construction spending December 2013

Private residential spending is still 48% below the peak way back in early 2006. But it is up 54% from the post-bubble low. Single-family spending registered a healthy increase of 3.4% for the month, while the multifamily category saw a more modest increase of 0.5%. The home improvement category saw an increase of nearly 2.0% for the month.

 

 

Home Ownership Levels

 

On Friday, we got the latest numbers from the Census Bureau on Home Ownership levels. The home ownership level for the 4th Quarter of 2013 was 65.2% which is lower than the 65.4% we saw in the 4th Quarter of 2013. I could go on and  on about how owning a home is a positive thing.

 

Check out the chart (red is seasonally adjusted):

home ownership level  hart 4th quarter 2013

The Census Bureau also reported that the median asking sales price for a vacant house in the 4th Quarter of 2013 was $141,000, which is up from $137,000 for the 4th Quarter of 2012.

 

While the level of home ownership is important I did read an interesting article this week about Why Home Ownership Rate is Misleading

ISM Manufacturing Index

 

We got some news today from the Institute for Supply Management. They said:

 

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the eighth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 56th consecutive month.

 

The January PMI® registered 51.3 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 56.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.2 percent, a significant decrease of 13.2 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 64.4 percent. The Production Index registered 54.8 percent, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points compared to December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 61.7 percent. Inventories of raw materials decreased by 3 percentage points to 44 percent, its lowest reading since December 2012 when the Inventories Index registered 43 percent. A number of comments from the panel cite adverse weather conditions as a factor negatively impacting their businesses in January, while others reflect optimism and increasing volumes in the early stages of 2014.

 

Weak report but remember they said the overall economy and economic activity in manufacturing both grew.

 

 

Looking Forward

 

Not a super huge amount of stuff we need to watch this upcoming week, However we need to keep an eye on:

 

  • Congressional Budget Office’s Budget and Economic Outlook
  • ADP Employment Report
  • Unemployment Claims
  • January Unemployment Report
  • Consumer Credit report from the Fed
  • Mortgage Rates

 

I am sure that I missed something but you can bet it will be covered here. Please subscribe so you never miss any of the big news for housing, real estate or the economy!

You May Also Like

Ugly But Honest News 4-22-2018 Discussing how much you need to make to buy a home, foreclosure starts and mortgage delinquencies, home remodeling is booming, the racial wealth gap...
Ugly But Honest News 4-21-2018 Discussing this week's reports on mortgage rates, the Fed's latest Beige Book, mortgage data for March 2018 and how the rise of rentals could be ver...
Ugly But Honest News 4-20-2018 Discussing the supply of homes and affordability, the cost of owning a home versus the price of homes, housing still considered a good investment an...
Ugly But Honest News 4-19-2018 Discussing the economy, if rent to own is a scam, homes selling faster than ever, housing starts and building permits, the dire need for more homes,...

About Mark

Not perfect, just awesome. Animal Lover yet Meat Eater, Coffee drinking Heavy Metal Loving Realtor in Anderson South Carolina

contact Mark Brian Realtor Anderson South Carolina
Mark Brian Anderson SC Realtor South Carolina
equal housing opportunity
Realtor
subscribe

Get Notified by Email Of New Posts!

share
contact Mark Brian Realtor Anderson South Carolina
equal housing opportunity
Realtor

Copyright 2018 Mark Brian Legal Notice Quick Search

Never Miss Another Article!
Introduce yourself and your program
Your information will *never* be shared or sold to a 3rd party.