Real estate housing and economic news round up for October 30 2016…
I was busy and just shared links in my last post but including some nice charts, graphs and sarcasm in this post:
The Home Ownership Rate in Q3 2016 Was 63.5%
Earlier this week, the Census Bureau shared some big real estate news:
- The home ownership rate was 63.5% in Q3 2016
- This is not really too different from Q3 2015 (0.2 lower)
- In the third quarter 2016, the median asking sales price for vacant homes was $157,500
Check out the accompanying charts:
Remember these statistics are national not local. Read more from the Census Bureau
Consumer Sentiment Slipped to Lowest Level Since October 2014
The Sentiment Index slipped in October to the same low recorded last September and to the lowest level since October 2014. The October decline was due to less favorable prospects for the national economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn sometime in the next five years for the first time since October 2014.
Nonetheless, the October rise may simply reflect a temporary bout of uncertainty caused by the election.
Read that last line again. I will be so glad when the election is over.
Single Family Seriously Delinquent Rate Decreased MoM and YoY
From Freddie Mac:
Our single-family seriously delinquent rate decreased from 1.03% in August to 1.02% in September.
Obviously, any decrease in the number of delinquent mortgages is a good sign for the economy and the real estate market.
While the decrease from August is small, the decrease from September 2015 is very encouraging.
The delinquent rate in September 2015 was 1.41% so some good positive movement over the past year.
Related: Fannie reported this week that their delinquency rate remained flat at 1.24%
Third-Quarter 2016 U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
Check out the chart from the BEA:
The bad news is that residential fixed investment declined (-6.2%) for the second straight quarter.
It will be interesting to see how the economy and markets react to the election.
Also the upcoming holiday season will be an indicator of just how strong things really are…
Progress Is Not Always Progress
I am not a fan of the basic income concept but the thought of the massive job losses from robot trucks scares the heck out of me:
We are facing the decimation of entire small town economies, a disruption the likes of which we haven’t seen since the construction of the interstate highway system itself bypassed entire towns. If you think this may be a bit of hyperbole… let me back up a bit and start with this:
This is a map of the most common job in each US state in 2014.
It should be clear at a glance just how dependent the American economy is on truck drivers. According to the American Trucker Association, there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the US, and an additional 5.2 million people employed within the truck-driving industry who don’t drive the trucks. That’s 8.7 million trucking-related jobs.
Doesn’t make the prospect of self driving trucks very appealing does it?
Read the rest here
Speaking of Job Destruction
From Wolf Street:
Volkswagen’s big kahuna of HR, Karlheinz Blessing – Member of the Board of Management with responsibility for Human Resources and Organization – dropped another brake shoe on global employment in auto manufacturing, which has been under pressure for decades from automation. This time, it’s electric vehicles.
EVs are much easier and cheaper to build than vehicles with internal combustion engines. Instead of engines, engine control systems, emission control systems, cooling systems, air-intake systems, starters, transmissions with clutches or torque-converters, or transaxles, fuel systems, exhaust systems with catalytic converters, the computers, sensors, and regulators to tie it all together, and the like, EVs have electric motors, a battery, and some wiring and controllers to make it all work.
Every automaker knows this – and they’re getting ready for that moment. But the relative simplicity of building EVs has a big drawback, in human terms.
And Blessing spelled it out to the German daily, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an interview to be published in Saturday’s edition, cited by Automobil Produktion: In the coming years, as VW is shifting to EV production, it will slash its global employment.
“It is not a question of cutting a few hundred jobs,” he told the paper. “Over the years, globally, it will be a five-digit number.”
I know some may shrug this off since it isn’t an American car company.
But if VW is headed in this direction, you better believe the other car manufacturers are also!
Why Are the Feds Seeking to Block Release of Fannie and Freddie Memos
Invoking an emergency procedure Wednesday evening, the Justice Department appealed a judge’s order that would force the government to turn over at least 56 documents that might shed light on why mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were effectively nationalized in August 2012.
I can understand when the government does not want something released because it is a matter of national security.
But this is completely different. So why fight to keep these memos out of the public eye?
Does Facebook Help Advertisers Violate Fair Housing Laws?
Imagine if, during the Jim Crow era, a newspaper offered advertisers the option of placing ads only in copies that went to white readers. That’s basically what Facebook is doing nowadays. The ubiquitous social network not only allows advertisers to target users by their interests or background, it also gives advertisers the ability to exclude specific groups it calls “Ethnic Affinities.” Ads that exclude people based on race, gender and other sensitive factors are prohibited by federal law in housing and employment.
I detest discrimination and wonder what HUD has to say about this?
Mortgage Rates This Week
Let take a quick look at the average mortgage rates reported this week:
Freddie Mac on Mortgage Rates:
Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates dipped a little this week:
- 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.47%
- Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgages also averaged 3.52%
- Last year at this time, 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.76%
- 15-year fixed rate mortgages this week averaged 2.78%
- Last week, 15-year fixed rate mortgages also averaged 2.79%
- Last year at this time, 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 2.98%
Check out the chart from Freddie Mac:
Bankrate on Mortgage Rates:
Bankrate said that mortgage rates were mostly unchanged this week:
- The average 30 year fixed rate mortgages stayed at 3.64%
- The average 30 year fixed rate jumbo mortgages increased to 3.67%
- The average 15 year fixed rate mortgage stayed at 2.93%
The MBA on Mortgage Rates:
The MBA reported that applications decreased this week. They also said:
The average contract interest rate for 30 year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) was 3.71% for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. This is down from the 3.73% reported last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30 year fixed rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) was 3.71% for 80% LTV loans. This is down from the 3.72% reported last week..
The average contract interest rate for 15 year fixed rate mortgages was 3.01% for 80% LTV loans. 3rd times a charm as this rate also decreased slightly!
As always, I am providing this to you for informational purposes only! I am a blogger and REALTOR in Anderson SC and not a mortgage lender.
You should contact the lender of your choice directly to learn more about its mortgage products and your eligibility for such products.