Talking about the latest news on home prices from Case-Shiller and Black Knight, consumer confidence, disappearing jobs, home affordability and much more!
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 5.6% annual gain
- The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase
- The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.1%
David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said:
Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers. However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to out-pace gains in wages and personal income. Affordability measures based on median incomes, home prices and mortgage rates show declines of 20-30% since home prices bottomed in 2012. With the current high consumer confidence numbers and low unemployment rate, affordability trends do not suggest an immediate reversal in home price trends. Nevertheless, home prices cannot rise faster than incomes and inflation indefinitely.
Great news but remember this is NOT talking about the Anderson SC area. Check out the chart:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased considerably in November, posted another gain in December. The Index now stands at 113.7, up from 109.4 in November. The Expectations Index increased sharply from 94.4 to 105.5, but the Present Situation Index decreased from 132.0 last month to 126.1.
Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board said:
Consumer Confidence improved further in December, due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high. The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers.
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions, which declined, still suggests that economic growth continued through the final months of 2016. Looking ahead to 2017, consumers’ continued optimism will depend on whether or not their expectations are realized.
2017 should prove to be very interesting…
Not very encouraging:
All the developed nations on earth will see job loss rates of up to 47% within the next 25 years according to a recent Oxford University study. These include blue and white collar jobs. So far, the loss has been restricted to the blue collar variety, particularly in manufacturing.
If this does occur, how will these people pay for a place to live or for food?
While we have yet to see the impact of the ‘Trump Bump’ and Yellen’s increase in mortgage rates on unadjusted house prices, I expect there to be an impact early next year. In 2013, we saw the significant slowing effect the ‘taper-tantrum’ had on unadjusted house prices. We expect unadjusted prices to respond similarly to the recent increases in mortgage rates, though to a lesser degree this time.
I am not a big fan of measuring affordability. Too many variables…
Such as what is truly affordable for one person is not the same for another.
When Steven Mnuchin ran OneWest, the bank aggressively and in some cases, wrongly, foreclosed on elderly homeowners with reverse mortgages. The bank had a disproportionate share of such foreclosures.
President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary has prompted new scrutiny of OneWest’s foreclosure practices. Mnuchin was the lead investor and chairman of the company during the years it ramped up its foreclosure efforts.
I am sure that sharing stuff like this pisses Trump supporters off. Just remember I shared negative stuff about the Obama administration for the past 8 years.
From Black Knight:
- U.S. Home Prices Up 5.6% Year-Over-Year
- 54 consecutive months of sustained year-over-year growth
- U.S. home prices are now within just 0.4% of a new peak
Great news but just like the Case-Shiller report above, this are national statistics. This is not the local info you need to make buying or selling decisions!
I blame the Russians:
The sleek, speedy cheetah is rapidly heading towards extinction according to a new study into declining numbers. The report estimates that there are just 7,100 of the world’s fastest mammals now left in the wild. Cheetahs are in trouble because they range far beyond protected areas and are coming increasingly into conflict with humans.
Sad to see news such as this.
Today’s Ugly But Honest Truth:
In 1934 the U.S. had 14,146 commercial banks holding insured deposits. By 1985, that number had barely budged, standing at 14,417. Then came the Bill Clinton administration in the 1990s and its reckless and unprecedented banking deregulation which allowed the giant Wall Street banks to swallow up, or drive out of business, thousands of banks across America. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), as of December 22 of this year, there are only 5,927 FDIC insured banks left in the U.S., a stunning decline of 59 percent from 1985.
It is nothing short of fiduciary negligence that Congress has allowed this dangerous banking system to remain unreformed eight long years after the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.
The sad thing is that far too many are busy blaming the other side to realize both sides are to blame. Many of our elected officials are nothing more than paid minions of the banks and Wall Street.
Gazing into the Home Price Crystal Ball
I shared several reports about home prices. So what can we expect in the future? Here is one projection:
For more information about home prices in the Anderson SC area, please read the Weekly Market Reports